Topic: Mobile
Sprint Offers 6 Months of Free Tidal HiFi to Subscribers (Jun 9, 2017)
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AT&T Adds $10 DirecTV Now Bolt-On to Unlimited Mobile Plans (Jun 1, 2017)
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T-Mobile Brings Digits Virtual Number Service Out of Beta May 31st (May 25, 2017)
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T-Mobile Offers to Pay Off iPhone or Pixel for Customers Switching from Verizon (May 24, 2017)
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Sprint and T-Mobile Holding Informal Merger Talks (May 12, 2017)
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★ Comcast and Charter Partner on Wireless, Agree to Talk About Deals (May 8, 2017)
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CDC Reports Wireless-Only Phone Households Now the Majority in US (May 5, 2017)
The CDC runs a twice-yearly study to determine how many households use landlines and how many use mobile phones only. That might seem like a strange thing for a government department responsible for studying disease to look into, but it first began doing so to determine whether its surveys needed to start including mobile respondents, as landline-based surveys were going to become less representative of the overall population over time. Well, those landline households are now less than half the overall population, while mobile-only households are now the majority, which has significant implications for polling and especially political polling, where automated dialing often hits only landline households. But the new numbers (and the trend over the last many years) are also a great illustration of how even technology that was once ubiquitous and considered essential can be displaced by something else, even something that on the face of it seems inferior in several respects (in this case, call quality, expense, the need to charge a battery, and so on, though all these things have improved over time). That’s worth remembering when looking at today’s dominant technologies and companies – there’s no reason to believe they’ll stick around forever either.
via Fortune
★ Sprint Reports Revenue Growth From Selling Old Phones, Announces Network Plans (May 3, 2017)
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★ T-Mobile Announces Plans for Rapid Nationwide Rollout of 5G in 600MHz (May 2, 2017)
T-Mobile this morning announced plans to roll out 5G services nationally starting in 2019 on the 600MHz spectrum it acquired in the recent FCC auction. T-Mobile is here taking a different tack from the other US operators and many international operators, which are instead using high-band millimeter wave spectrum to test and eventually roll out 5G. T-Mobile’s approach is very much more incremental in nature, not providing the kind of dramatic speed and latency benefits which have been associated with previous generational shifts in mobile, in contrast to the fiber-replacement services being tested by AT&T and Verizon. On the other hand, T-Mobile will be able to claim that it has widespread 5G coverage long before the other carriers, which will have to roll out the infrastructure-dense high-band version much more slowly. There’s a danger that T-Mobile’s more modest ambitions for 5G set low consumer expectations for the technology and that other carriers will have to work hard to raise those expectations with their own rollouts, and there’s a certain irony to the prospect of T-Mobile building a network with the broadest coverage but lower speeds given its current reputation for providing a fast but not ubiquitous LTE network. Some of the other non-speed-related aspects of 5G will still be realized, which should allow T-Mobile to launch some interesting new IoT services, which will helpful as its growth from phones continues to slow. See also my longer comment for media here.
via T-Mobile
★ AT&T Reports TV and Wireless Subscriber Losses in Q1 2017 (Apr 25, 2017)
AT&T reported Q1 2017 results today, and it looks to have been a grim quarter across its consumer business. It reported net adds of 2.1 million, but in reality saw a drop of 641k subscribers in the quarter due to the disconnection of 2.3 million subscribers as it decommissioned its 2G network and a removal of 400k reseller subs due to an unspecified “true-up” of its reporting. On the TV side, AT&T lost a total of 233k subscribers, a worsening of the past trend, which had been close to zero on a net basis between significant U-verse losses and good DirecTV gains. Those losses mostly came from those customers taking standalone DirecTV service without a bundle, and that’s worrying because although AT&T has been offering wireless-TV bundles since the merger closed, it can’t offer a national broadband-TV bundle, which is the one consumers mostly care about. That, in turn, is going to make it hard to turn that trend around, especially given that AT&T is already offering strong incentives for customers to bundle TV with wireless, including a $25 bill discount for TV and free HBO.
On the wireless side, connected devices (such as connected cars) continue to be the salvation for its overall subscriber numbers, because its postpaid business actually shrank in the quarter for the first time ever (as did Verizon’s), while its reseller numbers dropped like T-Mobile’s (possibly because big MVNO Tracfone disconnected 1.3m subs in the quarter). The re-introduction of unlimited plans was, however, a hit, with around 4.4 million new subscribers since the change, a more than 50% increase in that base. However, AT&T characterized its position now as being more or less the same competitively as at the beginning of the quarter, suggesting it doesn’t see any kind of permanent lift from the change. Financially, things overall were a little better – AT&T has been holding costs down in wireless which has allowed its margins to expand despite revenue challenges, and although equipment revenue is dropping rapidly due to much lower phone upgrade rates, that’s effectively zero-margin revenue anyway.
via AT&T
AT&T Starts Using 5G in Marketing for LTE Services (Apr 25, 2017)
AT&T announced today that it’s bringing what it calls 5G Evolution to over 20 metro areas by the end of the year, starting with Austin. However, as I’ve said before, 5G itself hasn’t been standardized yet, so the best anyone can claim to have today is pre-5G technology. But what’s more worrisome about this AT&T announcement is that it’s actually using that 5G Evolution brand as an umbrella term that includes some technology that has nothing to do with 5G, notably the faster LTE technology in the new Samsung Galaxy S8 and S8+. What we’re starting to see is the same marketing-led muddying of the water over a new wireless generation we saw with 4G a few years back, when Sprint, T-Mobile, and AT&T all used the term 4G to describe non-standard 4G network technologies (WiMAX and HSPA+ specifically). We’ve also already seen the gigabit LTE label thrown around, and though it’s technically accurate in terms of maximum throughput, it’s likely to disappoint consumers who actually use it. While carriers might want to steal a march on competitors, this does nothing for consumers, who will likely require significant education when real 5G does launch without being further confused by labeling non-5G technology with a 5G-related moniker. It also means that when 5G does launch, consumers will wonder what they’ve been using all this time, making it hard to develop strong marketing messages around real 5G. I’m hoping this doesn’t spread, but past experience suggests it will.
via AT&T
★ T-Mobile Releases Q1 2017 Earnings, Improving Margins, Slowing Sub Growth (Apr 24, 2017)
T-Mobile released its Q1 earnings today, and there were quite a few familiar trends: strong revenue growth, improving margins, and lots of talk about how awful TMO’s competitors are. But this quarter also saw a return to the slowing subscriber growth we saw in the first half of last year, which is indicative of T-Mobile’s business today: it’s doing very well within what’s a rapidly slowing market with very little additional headroom. All four of its major customer categories (postpaid, postpaid phones, prepaid, and wholesale) saw lower net adds year on year. In the case of both prepaid and wholesale, the decline was signifiant, and wholesale net adds were negative for the first time in recent memory. T-Mobile said it did very well against AT&T in the quarter, which means for AT&T itself to have done well overall it will have had to hold its own much better against Sprint (which hasn’t yet reported) and Verizon (which has, and had a horrible quarter). T-Mobile continues to invest very heavily not just in spectrum but also in store expansion – it’s now targeting 3000 new stores this year, split evenly across its T-Mobile and MetroPCS brands, up from 2500 at the start of the year. So far, the strategy continues to work reasonably well, but there’s a ceiling on growth in the categories T-Mobile targets, especially with Verizon and AT&T getting back into unlimited, so I’m curious to see how much growth slows in 2017, though it appears margins are going to continue to improve anyway (though they’re still way below those of the two big carriers).
via T-Mobile (PDF)
PayPal Partners with Google around Android Pay (Apr 18, 2017)
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Comcast Introduces Its Mobile Service (Apr 6, 2017)
Comcast today finally unveiled the wireless service it’s been working on for years off the back of a long-standing agreement to use the Verizon Wireless network as the underlying carrier. It should be a compelling offering for at least some customers, especially the premium 25% or so of its base to whom Comcast will offer preferential pricing. However, the unlimited offering caps out at 20GB per month before throttling kicks in, whereas the traditional carriers’ throttling kicks in at higher points and only in times of congestion, making Comcast’s unlimited in name only. WiFi is a major selling point from Comcast’s perspective, but I’m very skeptical that it’ll be a big part of users’ experience, given how few hotspots Comcast actually has in places where people spend time out of residential neighborhoods, and the fact that WiFi is often now slower rather than faster than LTE. Comcast is going to keep costs down by selling online and in its existing stores and marketing through existing channels, as well as keeping bad debt expense down by marketing to existing customers who pay their bills on time and offering only auto-billing on credit cards. Comcast will likely sell this service to up to 10% of its base in the next couple of years, which will be a nice boost to its revenues and profits, but will make only a tiny dent in the overall US wireless market – 10% penetration of its broadband base would be just 2.5 million customers, which is less than the number of new customers the big four carriers added last quarter alone.
via Comcast
Social Media is Absorbing Other Media Consumption on Phones – Axios (Mar 22, 2017)
I’ve changed the headline here to get at what I see as the key takeaway from this data, which is that social media is absorbing other forms of media consumption on phones. As standalone categories, multimedia, news, IM, and so on show up further down the list, but of course social media – by which I suspect we mostly mean Facebook and to a lesser extent Snapchat, Instagram and so on – increasingly includes those things. That’s where that consumption now increasingly happens, rather than in dedicated apps for consuming news, video, and so on. I’ve argued for a while now that Facebook is these days as much a content hub that happens to rely heavily on friends for the content rather than merely a social network, and to me this data confirms that.
via Axios
Netflix will explore mobile-specific cuts of its original series – The Verge (Mar 16, 2017)
Like the recent choose-your-ending report, this is something Netflix is merely experimenting with rather than something it’s going to be releasing imminently. But one of the advantages of commissioning and owning original content is the freedom to do interesting things with it, including chopping it up in different ways for mobile devices. I’m not quite sure how this would work in practice – in general, it’s pretty tough to take content created for one format and make it as compelling in smaller chunks or edited down, and Netflix will likely be best served by creating content specifically for mobile, but we’ll see. It has in the past (and even recently) said that it doesn’t create content with specific screens in mind, but that mindset seems to be changing subtly.
via The Verge
Apple Pay most popular mobile payment service among US retailers, survey finds – NFC World (Feb 7, 2017)
This survey suggests that Apple Pay is the most popular mobile payment service among 500 top retailers surveyed by Boston Retail Partners (BRP). It beat out PayPal (which I’ve never seen at retail other than at Home Depot, but appears to be largely used by smaller entities rather than big chains), and a variety of other card network-, bank, or store-specific alternatives like Chase Pay, MasterCard PayPass, and Visa Checkout, as well as Android Pay, which was accepted by 24% versus Apple Pay’s 36%. That’s good progress for Apple Pay, but still makes it a minority option even among these larger retailers, which tallies with my own experience of trying to find places to use it – where I live, two of the nearby grocery stores take it, but our closest and default store doesn’t, Subway and one or two other fast food places take it, but most don’t, and several other places (including CVS) have NFC-enabled terminals but block Apple Pay. The progress is good, but until Apple Pay is available more often than not, I suspect many people will just never bother trying – there’s too much embarrassment around a failed payment for most people to endure the trial and error process it often entails.
via NFC World (original report in PDF here)
Pokémon GO Has Grossed $1 Billion Worldwide Since Launch – Sensor Tower (Jan 31, 2017)
I’m including this today mostly because it’s an interesting counterpoint to the Nintendo results and related data about Super Mario Run from earlier. There’s such an interesting juxtaposition between the $53 million Nintendo has generated from Super Mario Run so far, and this billion-dollar gross figure from Sensor Tower for Pokemon Go since it launched. On the one hand, Nintendo only owns a minority stake in Pokemon Go, but the game has probably still generated more revenue overall for Nintendo than Super Mario Run, which it owns outright. And of course Pokemon Go’s business model is much more along the lines of the fairly standard in-app purchase model. It’s still early days for Super Mario Run, but it’s interesting for Nintendo that the game which appears to have been a far bigger success on mobile is the one it doesn’t own outright, and which adopted the standard IAP model rather than something different.
via Sensor Tower
Target plans to introduce its own smartphone payment service in stores later this year – Recode (Jan 24, 2017)
The fragmentation of mobile payments continues – following in the footsteps of other big retailers, Target is going to roll out yet another proprietary mobile payment system in its stores, rather than merely supporting the two or three store-agnostic mobile payments systems that already have decent traction. The motivations are obvious – control the user experience, capture the data, and drive loyalty – but the user benefits are always minimal, and uptake has generally been minimal too. We’re still at an early stage in mobile payments with no obvious winners yet, but it’s already fairly clear that this kind of store-specific approach isn’t going to be part of the eventual solution.
via Recode
Apple Pay on the Rise – TXN (Jan 23, 2017)
The headline here is a positive one about Apple Pay, whose adoption does seem to be on the rise, as this data from consumer spending analytics app TXN suggests. However, it’s also worth noting that the actual penetration of Apple Pay within the set of retailers in the data is still very low – no retailer has higher than 4% of their total credit card transactions going through Apple Pay, and that includes those that have iOS apps where it is by far the easiest way to pay (assuming you have Apple Pay set up in the first place). Apple Pay continues to be a fantastic technology where it works, but it still works in relatively few places, and as such most users haven’t been able to develop the habit of trying to use it everywhere. Even where it seems it might work (e.g. my local CVS) it often fails, which causes embarrassment and a barrier to trying again next time. We’re still waiting for the big tipping point for mobile payments like Apple Pay to go truly mainstream – for now it’s mostly still a niche technology.
via Apple Pay on the Rise – TXN