Narrative: Hardware is Hard
Each narrative page (like this) has a page describing and evaluating the narrative, followed by all the posts on the site tagged with that narrative. Scroll down beyond the introduction to see the posts.
Andy Rubin Nears His Comeback, Complete With an ‘Essential’ Phone – Bloomberg (Jan 13, 2017)
Andy Rubin, the creator of Android and its leader at Google for many years, is now apparently about to get back into the smartphone business, or more accurately into the ecosystem business, with a smartphone and potentially several other devices fleshing out the portfolio. On the one hand, this makes sense – few people want to buy just a phone anymore – they want to know that it comes with services and potentially other devices which will increase its value. On the other hand, creating such an ecosystem from scratch is incredibly tough and costly, as we’ve seen with LeEco recently too, so the prospects for success when trying to get there in one big leap are slim. The other big question about all of this, of course, is which operating system the Essential phone will run…
via Andy Rubin Nears His Comeback, Complete With an ‘Essential’ Phone – Bloomberg
Xiaomi stops disclosing annual sales figures as CEO admits the company grew too fast – TechCrunch (Jan 12, 2017)
It’s been apparent for some time that Xiaomi’s early stellar rise was not sustainable, and in 2015 it had to revise its guidance for smartphone sales downward and even then missed it by 10 million. Its business is growing though, including hitting $1 billion in sales in India last year, a strengthening retail business, and good growth in “Internet services”, though those still make up a small minority of sales, for all the talk about Xiaomi as a services company. At this point, Xiaomi is far closer in its model to Amazon than to Google or even Apple in its model – a retail and e-commerce company which sells some of its own hardware and also has a growing services business. But it’s been missing its targets and there’s no clarity about profitability yet at this point. Lots more detail in the CEO letter.
via Xiaomi stops disclosing annual sales figures as CEO admits the company grew too fast | TechCrunch
The dream of Ara: Inside the rise and fall of the world’s most revolutionary phone | VentureBeat (Jan 10, 2017)
This piece is probably hundreds of words more than you want to read on Google’s failed Project Ara modular phone, but there’s some interesting history here nonetheless, and it also fits into at least two narratives: Hardware is Hard, and Alphabet Lacks Focus. This is just the kind of project that almost everyone who had any sense outside of Google (and presumably many inside it too) knew would never work – the kind of “great in theory, lousy in practice” thinking that Google often falls into. Smartphones are tough enough without massively handicapping many of the things people care about most with a modular approach. Google did eventually kill this project in the Ruth Porat era of austerity, but it should arguably never have made it past the YouTube video the story starts with.
via The dream of Ara: Inside the rise and fall of the world’s most revolutionary phone | VentureBeat
Parrot is laying off a third of its drone division – Recode (Jan 9, 2017)
I’ve tagged this one against the Hardware is Hard narrative, because it seems the perfect illustration – thin margins in the face of aggressively priced competition from China is the perfect encapsulation of much of what ails the hardware industry. On the other hand, it’s also notable that Parrot is heading deeper into the enterprise drone market and pulling back from the consumer side – that seems an entirely sensible move in the face of the competition, and should work out better for the company. DJI, though, seems increasingly dominant here, while I’m curious about how GoPro will fare – it faces the same issues as Parrot across its entire business, and may well see similar results in drones specifically.
via Parrot is laying off a third of its drone division – Recode
Lessons From Fitbit’s Troubled Revenue Multiple – Mattermark (Dec 28, 2016)
The concluding line of Alex’s piece is “hardware is hard”, and that’s certainly becoming something of a narrative in its own right. But this is also a story about increasing market skepticism about wearables companies, and their potential to grow and generate profits. Fitbit has been the exception as an independent wearables-focused vendor, but I and others have questions about its ability to sustain its growth and profitability going forward.
via Lessons From Fitbit’s Troubled Revenue Multiple – Mattermark
Counterpoints to The Hardware Apocalypse – Steven Sinofsky on Twitter (Dec 28, 2016)
This is a tweet storm in 13 parts, and a response to Farhad Manjoo’s gadget apocalypse piece from early December. Sinofsky makes several cogent arguments about the proper role of gadgets (though I suspect he may be using the term a little differently from Farhad). As I said in linking to Farhad’s original piece, there’s some truth there but it’s not all quite right.
via Steven Sinofsky ॐ on Twitter
Warm Takes on Microsoft’s Surface Pro 4 – Medium (Dec 27, 2016)
Part of the recent version of the Apple is Doomed narrative has Microsoft in the ascendant, ready to eat its lunch. As with the rest of the narrative, that’s overblown, and this piece does a nice job of highlighting the challenges for Microsoft in winning over Mac users. It’s also a good entry in another couple of narratives – Hardware is Hard, and Microsoft and Hardware, pouring some cold water on the plaudits for Microsoft’s recent hardware efforts.
via Warm Takes on Microsoft’s Surface Pro 4 – Medium
The Gadget Apocalypse Is Upon Us – The New York Times (Dec 7, 2016)
I don’t agree with all of Farhad’s conclusions here – the nature of the columnist beast is that you have to make strong statements, sometimes stronger than you really believe. But there’s truth here, and some of my own thoughts too. Hardware is both easier than ever and harder than ever – easier to manufacture cheaply and at scale, and harder to build a large sustainable business at, especially in categories where the big players are dominant.
via The Gadget Apocalypse Is Upon Us – The New York Times