Narrative: Qualcomm is Anticompetitive

Written: January 28, 2017

Timeline:

This is an a new narrative, but also an unusual one – few in the industry had made the argument that Qualcomm was behaving anti-competitively unless very recently, and it was mostly regulatory authorities in Asia who had made this argument. The initial action in China in early 2015 was dismissed by many as protectionism on the part of the Chinese authorities in the context of a broader set of actions against US companies. Until the end of 2016, when Korea slapped Qualcomm with a similar fine, I don’t think that perception changed much. Even then, there were arguments to be made that Korean authorities were trying to help homegrown Qualcomm customers Samsung and LG.

But then came the US FTC’s lawsuit against Qualcomm in January 2017, and there was no longer any argument to be made about protectionism. With the Apple lawsuits that followed in the US and China later in the month, it suddenly became clear that Apple was likely behind a lot of the other regulatory actions, perhaps together with other device vendors, and that this was the beginning of what might turn out to be a long drawn out battle between the two over patents and licensing.

Although we now have three regulatory bodies and one private company alleging anticompetitive behavior on Qualcomm’s part, neither of Apple’s lawsuits nor the FTC’s action have yet reached a conclusion, and so the only definitive statements we have are those from the Asian authorities. It remains to be seen whether the FTC or Apple will win in court, and therefore whether similar conclusions will be drawn in the US. The fact is, though, that these various regulatory authorities have seen enough evidence to warrant serious allegations against Qualcomm, and that there has to be at least a 50/50 chance that it will lose.

This Bloomberg piece does a great job of explaining the ins and outs of the case in a way that’s fairly easy to understand, and I recommend if it you want to understand more about what’s really at stake here. Ultimately, Qualcomm and the various device vendors have been licensing technology on a basis which the vendors no longer feel is fair, and they are now challenging the system in the courts and through these various regulatory authorities. At stake is Qualcomm’s massively profitable licensing business, which makes up much of its overall profits, and so it’s likely to defend itself vigorously. In the meantime, Qualcomm will keep selling its chips to Apple and others on the existing basis while all this gets worked out.