Company / division: iPhone
No, WikiLeaks Didn’t Just Reveal That The Government Has Access To Your Secure Messaging Apps – BuzzFeed (Mar 7, 2017)
This is one of those stories where lots of publications are rushing to publish the most frightening headline without doing their reporting first, so kudos for BuzzFeed here for debunking right away one of the big tropes that’s doing the rounds. There’s nothing about secure messaging apps being compromised in the documents – rather, devices have allegedly been compromised, and of course once a device is compromised everything on it is too. However, even those claims of devices being broadly compromised are being disputed by some security experts – see here, for example. And Business Insider also argues that those on the latest version of iOS (79% on iOS 10 and another 16% on iOS 9) are safe from all the exploits listed. I suspect there will be lots more to come here, and as usual being on the latest version of Android is a lot harder than on iOS so the same protections don’t necessarily apply, but everyone should be trying to understand first, publish second when it comes to this data dump. And of course all this just reinforces arguments Apple and others have made about not trusting the government with back doors for encryption and the like.
via BuzzFeed
Survey Suggests Apple Devices Growing Rapidly in Enterprise (Mar 7, 2017)
The link here is to the PDF of a report from Jamf, which makes Mac management software for enterprises and educational organizations. It naturally has an incentive to push Mac adoption in the enterprise, so it’s worth noting that context, but the findings are broadly in line with what I’ve seen elsewhere. Some key figures: 91% of enterprises use at least some Macs, while 99% use iPhones or iPads; 74% of organizations have seen an increase in Mac adoption; 44% of companies offer employees a choice of Mac or PC, and at IBM for example 73% of employees want to use a Mac as their next computer. The survey of IT decision makers also has majorities saying Macs are easier to manage, configure, secure, and support than PCs. The enterprise is critical to Apple’s future growth given increasing saturation of global smartphone and PC markets, and already accounts for around 10% of revenue. Enterprises providing Macs, iPhones, and iPads as options for employees is therefore a key enabler of future growth here, and Apple’s recent deals with IBM, Cisco, SAP, and Deloitte are all part of its push to make Apple device adoption by companies easier and better.
via Jamf (PDF)
Apple will not change charging cable on iPhone 8, Ming-Chi Kuo says – CNBC (Mar 2, 2017)
This didn’t take long – Ming-Chi Kuo, who is the best-sourced Apple financial analyst out there, has debunked the report that the next iPhone will replace the Lightning port with USB-C. I said yesterday that this felt like a 50/50 report in the first place – logical as an eventual step, but not necessarily imminent, and it appears that we can now lay it to rest. Kuo does say that the other end of the cable might be USB-C, and that the new iPhones will support fast charging, something competing Android devices have had for some time.
via CNBC
Apple’s Next iPhone Will Have a Curved Screen – WSJ (Feb 28, 2017)
This report is written by a reporter in Tokyo rather than the US, suggesting that it’s a firm in the Japanese supply chain which is the source of the data. The headline doesn’t seem to be specifically supported by any of the actual reporting in the article, though – the article itself mentions that OLED can be bent into curved screens, but then only says that Apple has placed orders for OLED screens without confirming that it actually intends to use a curved screen. And of course, OLED screens have been reported for at least some of the new iPhones for ages now. I’m still very skeptical about the $1000 price point this article repeats, however. The other major point from the article is that Apple will replace Lightning with USB-C for the port on the new phones. I’m not as skeptical on this as some, but I don’t think it’s a certainty either. Between wireless for headphones and potential wireless charging, the port will just become a lot less important over the next few years, so at some point it doesn’t matter all that much what technology that port uses. There would be a certain symmetry, too, in abandoning the Lightning port after five years, just as Apple abandoned the old 30-pin connector after the first five years of the iPhone. Apple clearly isn’t wedded to particular ports or technologies for nostalgic or other reasons, and is willing to make changes where the upside outweighs the downside. And there’s a frustration right now to having to buy a whole new cable to charge your brand new iPhone from a brand new MacBook, which could be resolved somewhat by standardizing on USB-C. So I see the logic here, especially in making this change in the context of a big upgrade to the device, and I think this change may be inevitable in the long term, but it could easily be a year or two out still.
via WSJ
Cellebrite director says firm now doing ‘lawful’ extraction of data through iPhone 6 – AppleInsider (Feb 23, 2017)
This is the same firm that was recently hacked, supposedly exposing some of the tools it uses to crack iPhones, and now it’s boasting that it can crack iPhone 6 models in addition to the earlier models it has long been able to crack. I’ve still never seen any kind of official commentary on the hack of Cellebrite itself, but if that really did happen the fact that the company is getting ever better at hacking iPhones while leaving itself open to hacking should be worrying to lots of people. And if US law enforcement is still regularly paying Cellebrite to do this work without ensuring that it is able to keep the hacks secure, then it shares part of the blame by funding this work which ultimately puts regular users at risk.
via AppleInsider
Apple joins Wireless Power Consortium, fueling iPhone 8 rumors – Business Insider (Feb 13, 2017)
Apple does, of course, have two products that use wireless charging today: the Apple Watch and AirPods, both of which charge exclusively without a conventional cable plug. However, neither of those products officially uses the Qi standard managed by the WPC, and of course iPhones don’t do wireless charging at all today. Given that wireless charging has been a staple of iPhone rumors for some time now, this certainly lends plausibility, but it’s also disappointing if this is the flavor of wireless charging Apple is going to implement. I’ve never been a fan of mat-based wireless charging, mostly because it’s actually less flexible than cable-based charging – you have to leave your device on the flat surface, which means no taking phone calls, no two-handed typing, no taking pictures, and so on. I’ve always felt that wireless charging over distance was a far more interesting and useful technology because it could eliminate the need to put a device in any particular spot to charge entirely, which would be particularly good for wearables. There have been rumors about Apple working with Energous, which makes that kind of technology, for some time too, but this WPC membership makes it look as though Apple is going a more traditional route.
via Business Insider
Here’s Why Apple’s 10th Anniversary iPhone Will Likely Cost More Than $1,000 – Fast Company (Feb 8, 2017)
The headline is focused on the price, but there’s some interesting detail in the piece that’s in some ways more important (and likely more accurate). Some of this confirms earlier reporting about OLED edge-to-edge screens, and a home button integrated into the screen. There’s some new information in there too, though, about an integrated 3D sensor, though it’s not clear what it’ll be used for (AR is one obvious bet given Tim Cook’s enthusiastic remarks about the technology). The point here is, though, that the $1000 price point is fully $230 above the base price for today’s 7 Plus, and so it would have to incorporate a lot of additional wizardry to justify that premium. I think it’s far more likely we see another roughly $100 step up from the Plus to $870, though of course with the right storage configurations that’ll easily rise over $1000.
via Fast Company
Apple Said to Revive Efforts to Sell Used iPhones in India – Bloomberg (Feb 7, 2017)
The Indian government shot down Apple’s previous attempt to sell refurbished phones in India, but it sounds like it’s giving it another try. That’s good, because these refurb phones are about the only way Apple is going to dramatically reduce the price of iPhones in India and break out of the niche premium market there and into the lower tiers of the market, where far more phones are sold. Between taxes and import fees, iPhones are actually typically more expensive in India than elsewhere in the world, even though what Apple really needs there is to sell cheaper phones, so re-selling used phones is the way to go. There’s still been no official confirmation from Apple of its plans to build iPhones in India, but if that really is on the table, it’s possible that Apple is using that investment as a carrot to persuade the government to allow it to pursue its other goals in India, including selling refurbished phones and opening its own retail stores. It’ll be fascinating to see if it succeeds in getting what it wants – the original reason for rejecting Apple’s earlier request was somewhat ridiculous, but the reasoning doesn’t matter as long as the government says no.
via Bloomberg
Apple To Make iPhones in Bengaluru, India – Hindustan Times (Feb 2, 2017)
I haven’t seen any big US news outlets report this yet, and there’s been no official word from Apple, but several Indian publications are reporting that Apple has told officials in Karnataka that it intends to begin manufacturing iPhones through its partner Wistron in Bengaluru (Bangalore), in the province. Local manufacturing would help overcome some of Apple’s challenges in India, though certainly not all. They would help reduce prices by avoiding the import tax, and would allow Apple to permanently overcome the government’s ban on local retail for companies whose products aren’t made largely in India. That still leaves low incomes, tendencies towards thriftiness and favoring local brands, and other challenges for Apple in India, but it would be meaningful progress.
via Hindustan Times
Apple Tops Samsung in the Fourth Quarter to Close Out a Roller Coaster Year for the Smartphone Market, According to IDC (Feb 2, 2017)
Pick your poison here – most of the big names have put out similar releases this week crowning Apple the victor in the December quarter for smartphone sales, narrowly pipping Samsung. This is an entirely symbolic victory, but it’s the kind of thing that often causes the more negatives around Apple to die down temporarily (which isn’t to say there haven’t still been various articles this week warning that Apple’s next phone had better be be a big deal or else). Two other things worth noting here: Apple only ever comes in at number 1 in the December quarter, when it sells massively more iPhones than in any other quarter, and so for the year as a whole Apple will always be behind Samsung. Secondly, the IDC figures and others I’ve seen seem to have used Apple’s official iPhone sell-in figure for its first fiscal quarter – there are issues with using sell-in as opposed to sell through in these contexts, but I see the logic in using an official figure rather than an estimated one. However, there’s a problem with this approach of taking Apple’s number this quarter, because Apple’s quarter actually started in the last week of September this year, giving an extra week of sales very early in the iPhone 7 cycle. Without that extra week of sales, it’s very likely Apple wouldn’t have been ahead of Samsung, but I’ve seen none of these market share numbers acknowledge that fact or adjust Apple’s number downward to account for it.
via IDC
iPhone 7, 7 Plus Grow US Installed Base – CIRP (Feb 2, 2017)
Consumer Intelligence Research Partners is often an interesting source of data, in particular on Amazon’s Prime base in the US, but also on other topics, in this case the US iPhone installed base. It suggests in this PDF press release that iPhone has a base of 132 million in the US, with the vast majority of devices in that base being models launched in the fall of 2014 or later, which puts the age of almost all of them at under 30 months. That’s striking at a time when upgrade cycles in the US have been lengthening, and Tim Cook was asked about that phenomenon on the Apple earnings call this week. The fact is that smartphone upgrade cycles have been lengthening, but the iPhone doesn’t seem to have been affected as much as other smartphones have. In part, that’s because iPhones have been the focus of both Apple’s own and carriers’ regular upgrade and leasing programs, and it’s partly the nature of the iPhone and those buying it. It’s also worth noting that the 132m figure is likely a tad high – it suggests a market share a little higher than most other sources I’ve seen. It also looks like the iPhone 7 sales cycle has kicked off faster than the 6S cycle, but more slowly than the 6 cycle, which is in line with evidence I’ve seen elsewhere.
via CIRP (PDF)
Apple Reports December 2016 Quarter Results – Apple (Jan 31, 2017)
This was an important quarter for Apple – it had predicted a return to growth, and it delivered on that promise, though the growth was helped by the extra week in the quarter due to Apple’s quirky reporting calendar. The highlights were iPhone, Mac, and Services growth, with the latter being by far Apple’s most consistent and fastest growing segment. The lowlights were the iPad, Other Products, and Greater China, all of which were down. Both total revenues and iPhone shipments (which are closely tied) have been within a remarkably narrow range the last three years in the December quarter, suggesting at least something about supply constraints and natural limits. The Mac had its best revenue quarter ever, helped hugely by the new MacBook Pros, which are more expensive than the average Mac Apple sells and boosted ASP a lot. Services was mostly driven by the App Store as usual, but music (Apple Music and iTunes combined) grew for the third straight quarter, and iCloud and AppleCare also helped. Apple Watch had a record unit and revenue quarter too, apparently, though we have to guess at the actual numbers. I’d guess it was marginal growth year on year, for around $2.1 billion in revenue and 6 million units. iPad dropped significantly both in unit shipments and revenue (and ASP), though some of that was down to channel depletion, and the large iPad Pro had launched a year ago, boosting that quarter. Overall, a pretty decent quarter for Apple, but no strong growth here yet (especially when you strip out the extra week). Foreign currency isn’t helping either unit sales or reported revenues or profits, and arguably roughly offset that extra week in several regions.
Lots of real-time tweets from me in this thread, and I’ll be updating the Jackdaw Research Quarterly Decks Service deck for Apple in the coming days once the 10-Q is out.
via Apple
Behind Apple’s new campaign: One Night on iPhone 7 – Apple (Jan 30, 2017)
It really feels like Apple is doubling down on the iPhone as camera marketing strategy – its recent ad “Take Mine” was very effective, and it’s been working with lots of publishers and independent photographers to showcase the iPhone 7’s photo-taking skills. It looks like it did a project back in November 2016 in which it invited lots of photographers to take pictures with the iPhone 7 on the same day, and then combined these into a campaign around its “Shot on iPhone” theme. The camera is definitely one of the standout points of the new iPhone (as I said both in my main review and my subsequent mini-review of Portrait Mode), so this is a smart strategy by Apple. But other device makers are producing really compelling cameras and camera features now too, with the Pixel also majoring on its camera among other things, and producing very good results in the process. Apple can’t just focus on the camera, and that’s why you’re seeing AirPods ads and ads starring other features too – it’s always been about the complete package with the iPhone, and that’s the argument Apple is making here: this is a phenomenal camera on a phone that also does lots more besides.
via Apple
For Apple’s iPhone Sales, Size Matters – WSJ (Jan 28, 2017)
This article is a good counterpoint to another I commented on recently, which suggested a shift to older devices and therefore lower average selling prices for the iPhone last quarter. As I said with regard to that piece, I’m seeing little evidence of the trend mentioned, and in fact I’d expect a shift to larger devices to push ASPs up, if anything, This WSJ piece quotes some data to that effect, and has some good numbers around the mix between the base and Plus models and how it’s shifted over time. Apple clearly does sell older devices too, so this mix shift among the 7 variants isn’t the only factor, but I still think ASPs should be pretty healthy when Apple reports its results for last quarter.
via WSJ
Apple Pay on the Rise – TXN (Jan 23, 2017)
The headline here is a positive one about Apple Pay, whose adoption does seem to be on the rise, as this data from consumer spending analytics app TXN suggests. However, it’s also worth noting that the actual penetration of Apple Pay within the set of retailers in the data is still very low – no retailer has higher than 4% of their total credit card transactions going through Apple Pay, and that includes those that have iOS apps where it is by far the easiest way to pay (assuming you have Apple Pay set up in the first place). Apple Pay continues to be a fantastic technology where it works, but it still works in relatively few places, and as such most users haven’t been able to develop the habit of trying to use it everywhere. Even where it seems it might work (e.g. my local CVS) it often fails, which causes embarrassment and a barrier to trying again next time. We’re still waiting for the big tipping point for mobile payments like Apple Pay to go truly mainstream – for now it’s mostly still a niche technology.
via Apple Pay on the Rise – TXN
Apple-Supplier Foxconn Weighs $7 Billion U.S. Display Plant – Bloomberg (Jan 23, 2017)
There are lots of pieces that come together in this announcement, though the actual details are still very vague, and no final decisions have been made. Firstly, there’s the pressure from President Trump during the campaign (repeated since in a gentler manner) for Apple to produce some of its hardware in the US. Then there’s the recent meeting between the SoftBank and Foxconn CEOs and Trump around bringing jobs to the US. And finally, the suggestion Apple might use Sharp (now owned by Foxconn to make OLED displays for the next iPhones). One scenario is that, as with the Mac Pro, Apple chooses a relatively low-volume, high margin product to manufacture in part in the US, with OLED screens from Sharp for a high-end iPhone 8 model one possibility. Apple has remained entirely silent on the question of manufacturing in the US, and of course doesn’t actually build its own devices anywhere, instead relying on Foxconn to do the assembly, so the ball here is somewhat in Foxconn’s court – without its support, Apple likely can’t do anything.
via Apple-Supplier Foxconn Weighs $7 Billion U.S. Display Plant – Bloomberg
Super Mario Run will be available on Android in March – The Verge (Jan 23, 2017)
Super Mario Run was an iPhone exclusive when it first launched, and as such was featured in Apple’s Fall 2016 keynote. However, that exclusive won’t last forever, and it appears that the game will be coming to Android in March, despite the criticism of the business model and other features of the game. What’s not clear is whether the business model will be the same – while getting people to pay for iPhone games is hard, getting Android users to pay up is much harder still, so I wonder whether the additional investment will be worth it if Nintendo sticks with the $10 unlock model. More broadly, there will be additional games for both iOS and Android later this year, so Nintendo is clearly still committed to its smartphone game strategy. However, we still haven’t seen the symbolically important release by Nintendo of any of its highly popular original games for smartphones, something almost every observer seems to think it should do, but which it chooses for some reason to resist for now. It’s also worth noting that Super Mario Run (though not the next game) is another example of iOS first, Android later – a trend that continues to be one of the biggest hits against Google’s Play Store and Android in general.
via Super Mario Run will be available on Android in March – The Verge
Apple iPhone 8 rumors: Features may include facial recognition, laser sensor – Business Insider (Jan 18, 2017)
Cowen doesn’t have the same track record in predicting future iPhones as KGI, which has by far the best, so we should take all this with a pinch of salt. But it’s in keeping with the broad sense that Apple is very interested in augmented reality, and would need to put more sensors and other technology into its products to enable AR functions. I’m still intrigued by the idea of further splitting the iPhone line – there are already three sizes, and this research note posits a fourth, larger one, with exclusive access to an OLED screen and embedded fingerprint sensor. There’s some logic to that, because all the supply chain chatter suggests Apple would have a very hard time finding enough OLED technology to power all of the next generation of iPhones, so making it exclusive to the highest end device would limit demand to a smaller number. Even so, that device is likely to be in high demand, as was the 7 Plus with Jet Black finish, another phone with supply constraints.
via Apple iPhone 8 rumors: Features may include facial recognition, laser sensor – Business Insider
App downloads up 15 percent in 2016, revenue up 40 percent thanks to China – TechCrunch (Jan 17, 2017)
Two things are worth noting about all the data presented here: firstly, apps are still growing massively, putting the lie to the idea that native mobile apps are somehow dead, to be replaced by some combination of better web apps, bots, or something else. The number of apps being downloaded is growing rapidly each year rather than stagnating or slowing down. The second point is that there continues to be a massive disparity between usage and spending when it comes to Android and iOS. See the first and fourth charts in this article – the first shows massively more Android apps downloaded than iOS apps, while the fourth shows double the spending on those iOS apps relative to Android. It continues to be far more profitable for developers to make apps for iOS, even with a smaller user base and far fewer apps downloaded. That, in turn, seems likely to reinforce the pattern that the vasty majority of big new apps get launched on iOS first, and Android second (if ever). That continues to be one of Apple’s big ecosystem advantages.
via App downloads up 15 percent in 2016, revenue up 40 percent thanks to China | TechCrunch
The iPhone is gaining ground on Android in the U.S. – Recode (Jan 11, 2017)
Kantar’s data is solid, so these conclusions are reliable, and they suggest a bifurcation in iPhone market share between the US and China. It’s rising in the former, and falling in the latter, which is actually to be expected. The iPhone’s share of the market has generally fallen over time in most markets as they expand and more new buyers at the lower end of the market buy cheaper phones. But as markets mature and begin to saturate, there’s potential for the iPhone to gain share, because share is driven by switching and not by new low end users coming into the market, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing now in the US. The key for iPhone sales growth (not share growth, which is not itself important to Apple) going forward is to drive switching behavior, hence Tim Cook’s frequent references to record Android switching rates on earnings calls.
via The iPhone is gaining ground on Android in the U.S. – Recode